Archive for the ‘Walters' Corner’ Category

Natural Gas Market Commentary, by FCI

Wednesday, June 30th, 2010

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Natural Gas Market Commentary, by FCI - Going into the June 04 trading day, we knew we had observed a major upside breakout in July natural gas the previous day with volume quite active, although there was some short covering by large speculators. Technicals had suggested an intermediate bottom was in place, although fundamentals disagreed. Fundamentally, we had large supplies and questionable demand. The weekly natural gas storage report had shown an injection of 88 bcf with total storage at 2357 bcf or 14.9% above the 5 year average. For the prior month natural gas storage had increased 362 bcf. The market had recently closed above the 9 day moving average, supporting a short-term positive trend. Although the RSI was nearing 70+, giving some indication of a potentially overbought market, natural gas managed to rally and close on June 04 at $4.819.

By the following week, the EIA weekly storage report showed an injection of 99 bcf, bringing total storage to 2456 bcf or 14.4% above the 5 year average. For the week of June 07 to June 11, price action was disappointing to natural gas bulls.

By June 16, 2010, with natural gas managing to put in fresh highs the night before, it appeared that natural gas was due for a decline. A potential tropical storm east of the Western Antilles was downgraded to having a 10% chance of developing into a tropical storm and natural gas didn’t get the positive mention from President Obama in his Presidential address as may have been expected; people were expecting the president to shift the US more towards alternative energy sources; perhaps traders were buying on the rumor and selling on the news.

Q&A – Responding to a question on my previous post – “How Do We Calculate Management and Incentive Fees …”

Wednesday, March 10th, 2010

By Jamie Walters of FCI

A subscriber has written the following response to my ealier blog on how we calculate management and incentive fees in OSS and CPP. He writes “Thanks for the effort in explaining this but where did the $42 go in the CPP example?  How can the starting balance in month 2 be $51,875 if the $42 was debited from the account?  Is it actually billed in arrears?  Definitionally, isn’t “account equity” less all manner of fees including management fees?  Perhaps I have missed something here.”

Please refer to the original blog. My response to the subscriber follows:

Good question. The management fee is not billed in arrears. The management fee is billed on the first day of the month. For example, the February management fee is billed on the first day of February.

How can the starting balance in month two be $51,875? We calculate the monthly return based on the end-of-month account balance, which we refer to as the previous period’s ending net asset value (ENAV). All performance information is calculated on an accrual basis of accounting in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. The beginning net asset value (BNAV) for the period shall represent the previous period’s ending net asset value (ENAV).

For an account that has just opened, we calculate the monthly return based on the BNAV. We do not subtract out the management fee that is billed on the first of the month to arrive at the BNAV. However, the ENAV for the first month will have the management fee deducted from it.

So in the CPP example that you are referring to in the blog, we calculate a 5% return before incentive fees as ($52,500 – $50,000) / $50,000. The account started with a $50,000 balance. This is the BNAV. The account ended with a $52,500 balance before incentive fees. That is how in the example, we have ($52,500 – $50,000) / $50,000. The $52,500 reflects the management fee that has been debited at the beginning of the period.

From $52,500, we debit the incentive fee for the period. In the example, the incentive fee was $625. This leaves a balance of $51,875 (=$52,500-$625), which is the ENAV.

By definition the ENAV for the period shall represent the BNAV plus or minus additions, withdrawals and redemptions, and net performance. Additions include both voluntary and involuntary additions. Withdrawals include both voluntary and involuntary withdrawals. Redemptions include both voluntary and involuntary redemptions. The net performance for the period represents the change in the net asset value net of additions, withdrawals, redemptions, fees and expenses.

Also, be aware that the return to the client is calculated as (ENAV – BNAV) / BNAV. In our hypothetical example, the return to the client is 3.75% (= $51,875 – $50,000) / $50,000, whereas the return before incentive fees was 5%. Just to be clear, the client would have seen a return of 3.75% net of all fees, not a return of 5%.

FCI would like to bring to your attention that there are substantial risks involved in trading futures and options on futures. The high degree of leverage that is often obtainable in commodity trading can work against you as well as for you. The volatile nature of the futures and high degree of leverage used in commodities may result in clients losing more than their original investment. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation.

How Do We Calculate Management and Incentive Fees in the OSS and CPP Programs?

Friday, March 5th, 2010

By Jamie Walters of FCI

Friday, March 05, 2010 @ 5:37:17 PM EDT.

In the Credit Premium Program (CPP), the fee structure is as follows:

Management Fee: 1%
Incentive Fee: 25%

__________________________

Consider the following example for CPP.

Start Date: First day of the month.

Initial account value: $50,000

On the first day of the month we take a management fee of 1/12 of 1% from the beginning of the month account balance of $50,000. Thus, FCI would take $42.00 for management fees from a $50,000 funded account. This management fee is for the starting month.

Let’s say that the monthly return for CPP before incentive fees is 5%, for example. This means that the account value has grown by 5% from $50,000 to $52,500 by the start of the next month before incentive fees. Just to be clear, a 5% monthly return before incentive fees is calculated as:

($52,500 – $50,000) / $50,000, and not as ($52,456 – $49,958) / $49,958. In other words, the beginning-of-month account balance used in calculating the return for the month is not net of the management fee that is withdrawn at the beginning of the month.

On the beginning of the second month, we would take 25% of the profit added to the account from the prior period as incentive fees. Thus, we would collect $625 (= 25% of $2,500) on the beginning of the second month as incentive fees. This leaves the client account at an opening balance of $51,875 (= $52,500 – $625.00) for the first day of the second month.

On the first day of the second month we take a management fee of 1/12 of 1% from the beginning of the month account balance of $51,875. Thus, FCI would take $43 for management fees from a $51,875 beginning-of-period account balance on the first day of the second month. This management fee is the management fee for the second month.

The balance of $51,875 for the start of the second month is the new high-water mark for the account as of the first day of the second month. This means that FCI will not collect any incentive fees from the account at the end of the second month (first day of month three) unless the ending account balance on the last day of the period is above the high water mark of $51,875.

Note that in this example, the account experienced no additions or withdrawals of funds by the client. In addition, the account was started at the beginning of a period; in this case, at the beginning of the first month, and thus, no time-weighting is involved.

In the Option Selling Strategy (OSS), the fee structure is as follows:

Management Fee: 2%
Incentive Fee: 20%

Consider the following example for OSS.

Start Date: First day of the month

Initial account value: $50,000

On the first day of the month, we take a management fee of 1/12 of 2% from the beginning of the month account balance of $50,000. Thus, FCI would take $83.33 for management fees from a $50,000 funded account. This management fee is for the first month.

Let’s say that the monthly return for OSS before incentive fees is 5%, for example. This means that the account value has grown by 5% from $50,000 to $52,500 by the start of the second month before incentive fees. Just to be clear, a 5% monthly return before incentive fees is calculated as

($52,500 – $50,000) / $50,000, and not as ($52,412.50 – $49,916.33) / $49,916.33. In other words, the beginning-of-month account balance used in calculating the return for the month is not net of the management fee that is withdrawn at the beginning of the month.

On the beginning of the second month, we would take 20% of the profits added to the account from the prior period as incentive fees. Thus, we would collect $500 (= 20% of $2,500) on the first day of the second month as incentive fees. This leaves the client account at an opening balance of $52,000 (= $52,500 – $500.00) for day one of the second month.

On the first day of the second month, we take a management fee of 1/12 of 2% from the beginning of the month account balance of $52,000 Thus, FCI would take $86.66 for management fees from a $52,000 beginning-of-period account balance on the first day of the second month. This management fee is the management fee for the second month.

The balance of $52,000 for the start of month two is the new high-water mark for the account as of the beginning of month two. This means that FCI will not collect any incentive fees from the account at the end of month two (on day one of month three) unless the ending account balance on the last day of the period is above the high water mark of $52,000.

Note that in this example, the account experienced no additions or withdrawals of funds by the client. In addition, the account was started at the beginning of a period; in this case, at the beginning of the month, and thus, no time-weighting is involved.

Be advised that because FCI receives Incentive Fees, it may be inclined to trade in a more speculative manner than if it received only a percentage-of-assets fee. Please refer to the disclosure documents for either OSS or CPP for more information at http://www.financialii.com/financial-commodity-investments/disclosure-document.html

FCI would like to bring to your attention that there are substantial risks involved in trading futures and options on futures. The high degree of leverage that is often obtainable in commodity trading can work against you as well as for you. The volatile nature of the futures and high degree of leverage used in commodities may result in clients losing more than their original investment. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation.

Sectors traded in FCI’s OSS and CPP

Wednesday, February 10th, 2010

By Jamie Walters of FCI

In case you’re wondering, we are involved with the following sectors in the OSS and CPP:

OSS Portfolio Composition
Energies 30.00%
Grains and Oilseeds 10.00%
Precious Metals 15.00%
Softs 15.00%
Currencies 20.00%
Interest Rates 10.00%

Note, we don’t actively trade the equity indices like most other CTA’s. We do, however, diversify among various commodities. See below:

  

In my next blog entry, I will discuss how much of our capital is allocated to any one sector based on our maximum margin-to-equity ratio and the composition you see above. Stay tuned…